2027: The ADC Conundrum

By Kunle Oyatomi
On Friday, January 2, 2025, chieftain of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Dr Ladan Salihu, appeared as a guest on Arise TV, where he was confident and direct.
Without wasting words, he spoke like a man on an already pointless mission to rally support for unseating President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
Beaming with happiness and enthusiasm, he sat through the arrangee interview (apologies to Abami Eda) and provided answers to every question that was thrown his way, including those posed by Peter Obi’s point person, Rufai Oseni.
Therefore, it was not surprising to hear him speak in the manner that he did after being asked: “What impact will Peter Obi’s decision to join the ADC have on the party’s chances in the forthcoming general elections?”
Without acknowledging President Tinubu’s currently unmatchable political stature in the country, he responded: “Politically, the defection of Peter Obi to the ADC is a blockbuster. It is a defining moment in our own political history, in the history of the ADC and in the history of the opposition movement in Nigeria.
“Remember, some weeks back, Atiku Abubakar declared for the ADC and now we have Obi. Numbers do not lie. The two put together in the last presidential elections in 2023 had about 62 to 63 per cent of the total presidential votes. If you take that calculus and put it on the table, you can literally say that the coming of Obi into the ADC has put us in a pole position, one leg already in the presidential villa.”
However, two things caught my attention during the about 25-minute interview. First, Salihu overlooked the fact that the one leg the fantasising ADC claims to have in the Aso Rock is rotten, weak and unable to bear the political aspirations of Nigerians who have vowed to sustain President Tinubu’s pleasing performance in office.
Second, he failed to acknowledge the biblical warning in Matthew 12:25 that every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against itself will not stand, even when it is obvious to the blind that, en route to 2027, ADC is already bleeding internally and does not have the internal structure, unity and cohesion to challenge Jagaban.
When reminded that Professor Pat Utomi had said if Obi is not made the presidential candidate of the ADC and he accepts a vice presidential position, he will part ways with him. Rather than acknowledge that even political lightweights like Utomi could be integral to Obi’s imagined chances, Salihu said: “He is rushing, he has rushed with his comments. I believe he should calm down and sober up. I will also plead with those who have the kind of mindset and temperament of Pat Utomi. I am certain that at this stage, we savour the moment and look at the issues dispassionately because we are trying to recruit members.”
Again, when confronted with comments by Nafiu Gombe, who claimed that Obi had joined the wrong faction of the ADC, Salihu simply denied ever hearing of him, even though just a day before the interview, Gombe, who claims to be the authentic National Chairman of the ADC, had distanced himself from the defection and registration of Obi at the party’s Enugu zonal office.
Gombe had said the process allegedly used to register Obi did not follow the party’s rules and described the development as irregular and unacceptable under the ADC constitution.
He said: “It has come to our attention that a certain Mr Peter Obi was reportedly registered at a party zonal office in Enugu. The National Working Committee wishes to categorically state that this action does not align with the constitutional and stipulated procedures for membership registration into the ADC.”
Note that internal party squabbles had forced Obi out of the Labour Party, LP, to the ADC after Lamidi Apapa and Julius Abure’s refusal to relinquish control of the party kept dimming his prospects of doing well in the 2027 general elections. Ironically, the same situation is resurfacing in Obi’s new political home.
Obi’s case is even worse given that the fragile structure which he brought with him to the ADC has vowed to dump him if he relinquishes his presidential ambition for a vice presidential role.
Like him, another strongman and a political harlot who defected to the ADC had also done so due to the internal crisis in the ailing Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Atiku, a perennial presidential contestant, fled the PDP to unactualise his fleeting ambition on the platform of the ADC. As it has played out for over a decade ago, he is, to put it in the words of Bola Tinubu, about to lu le and waste his already depleted resources to the joy of his rivals.
Well, two truths, which is the whole essence of this write-up, can co-exist. First, Obi is fast learning a lesson from a man with whom they both ran on the same ticket in the 2019 general elections: political harlotry, which has become an undeniable worry to Nigerians. While shopping for a platform to achieve his political ambitions, Obi has opened his legs widely to the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and LP. Now, it is the ADC, where he is likely to fail as some of his supporters have shown.
For instance, a weightless individual in Nigeria’s political firmament but crucial to Obi’s cause, Aisha Yesufu, just warned him not to deputise any presidential candidate in the 2027 election or risk her opposition. Yesufu, who already sensed that Atiku would do all in his powers to snatch the presidential ticket, vowed that she would work against any unholy alliance arising from such an agreement.
Second, President Tinubu had historically defeated Obi and Atiku twice in the past. While the first time was in 2019, the second was in 2023. The third time will be in 2027. I say this boldly because Tinubu’s chances of doing the same after two beautiful wins against them is never in doubt. Consequently, Salihu’s remark that the votes of Obi and Atiku, a presidential ticket hustler, put together means one leg already in the presidential villa is dead on arrival.
Oyatomi, Former Editor, (Sunday Vanguard), Author (FINGERPRINTS 2008) and a member of the Board of Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), a Think tank based in Abuja.